ABSTRACT
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is currently considered a great challenge to the health of human society. In this study, since the COVID-19 vaccines are currently being developed, a vaccine allocation as an effective pharmaceutical strategy to immunize people against disease is being considered. To this end, a new extended SIR-type model including vaccination compartment and reinfection transmission to predict disease behavior in Iran has been formulated. The mathematical analysis of the model is investigated to verify that the proposed model is well-posed epidemiologically. The biological parameters are evaluated via a nonlinear least-square fitting approach. Finally, to investigate the impact of preventive pharmaceutical measures on flattening the curve of the COVID-19 incidence in Iran, the optimal control strategy is applied. The results of numerical simulations and the optimal control analysis illustrate that the combined implementation of time-dependent measures has a drastic impact on disease burden reduction. © 2022 IEEE.
ABSTRACT
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is a major health threat caused by a virus called Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). COVID-19 can cause acute respiratory illness, which is deadly in some people. Epidemio-logically, vaccination is the safest and most effective approach to gaining immunity and fighting against viral diseases. In this paper, the extended compartmental SEIR model, considering vaccination as a pharmaceutical intervention, to assess the behavior of the COVID-19 outbreak in Iran is proposed. Initially, some mathematical analysis of the model, including positivity, boundedness, the basic reproduction number, and herd immunity is investigated. In order to validate the proposed model, the biological parameters of the model are estimated based on real-confirmed cases in Iran at a specified interval of time. Finally, to examine the concept of flattening the curve of the disease outbreak, the impacts of physical distancing and vaccination on mitigating the burden of the epidemic are compared graphically. © 2022 IEEE.